What does Value-at-Risk measure in the context of physical climate risks?

• A. Potential loss at a given confidence level
• B. The probability of a single hazard event
• C. The maximum possible loss across all locations
• D. The average daily revenue loss

Answer: (A)

Value-at-Risk in this context is the potential loss that could occur over a defined time period, at a chosen confidence level. It gives a threshold: with, say, 95% confidence, losses would not exceed the VaR amount over that period, while there is a 5% chance losses could be higher. This helps quantify the tail of the loss distribution from climate-related hazards and informs how much capital or reserves might be needed to cover extreme but plausible outcomes. It is not the probability of a single hazard event, not the maximum possible loss across all locations, and not the average daily revenue loss.