What is a key limitation of relying on historical hazard data for predicting future geospatial risk under climate change?

• A. They may be biased toward recent events.
• B. They always capture non-stationarity.
• C. They provide perfect forecasts.
• D. They may not capture changing hazard frequency/intensity, non-stationarity, urban dynamics, data gaps, and unmodeled interactions; require downscaled projections and scenario planning.

Answer: (D)

The main idea is that past hazard data assume patterns stay the same, but climate change makes those patterns change over time (non-stationarity). Because future hazards can shift in frequency, intensity, and location, relying only on historical records often misses how risks could evolve. Additionally, urban growth, changing exposure, data gaps, and interactions between climate and other systems (like hydrology or land use) aren’t fully captured by old data. To address this, risk assessments combine downscaled climate projections with scenario planning to explore a range of possible futures rather than rely on past patterns alone.